Castuner

Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

Evan Mandery

A team of long-time investors and social scientists navigate the prediction market with a focus on politics and the heuristic biases that derail most speculators.

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Episodes

37 episodes

  1. How will the world change if the Democrats sweep the House and Senate? 1:01:15
  2. Who Will Win the NBA Championship and MVP? 46:47
  3. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next governor of Ohio? 32:22
  4. Will Ilhan Omar Be Charged With a Federal Crime? 56:45
  5. Which Party Will Win the Senate and House? 51:42
  6. Will Donald Trump Invoke the Insurrection Act or Martial Law? (And other doomsday scenarios.) 56:44
  7. Who Will Win Big Brother? 48:42
  8. Will Yale Settle With the Trump Administration Over Law School Admissions 1:02:19
  9. The Summer of Learning: Sunk Cost Fallacy 32:13
  10. The Summer of Learning: Anchoring Bias 39:03
  11. The Summer of Learning: Perpetuals 25:55
  12. The Summer of Learning: An Introduction to Prediction Markets 37:21
  13. The "Donk" Controversy and the Nature of Reality in Prediction Markets 51:18
  14. Will There Be an US-Iran Nuclear Deal? 57:47
  15. Who Will Win the Maine Senate Race? 44:04
  16. Who Will Win the Texas Senate Race? 45:47
  17. The Epstein Files 40:19
  18. Who Will Win the NBA Finals? 35:48
  19. How Much Will Democracy Weaken Under Trump? 1:28:53
  20. Transgender Sports Bans 50:33
  21. An Early Look at the 2028 Republican Primary 50:26
  22. An Early Look at the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary -- Part 2 59:47
  23. An Early Look at the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary -- Part 1 1:19:44
  24. Do Your Politics Affect How You Bet? 40:03
  25. Will Donald Trump Run for a Third Term? 56:16
  26. Insider Trading in Plain Sight: Is Someone Cheating the Prediction Markets? 1:03:04
  27. Trump's Iran Ultimatum 34:43
  28. Who Will Trump Appoint to Replace Pam Bondi 41:17
  29. Trump & the Midterms: How Low Can Trump Go? 53:29
  30. Will the U.S. Confirm That Aliens Exist? 47:13
  31. Top 10 Value Plays for the Year 41:21
  32. Who Will Win The Bachelorette? 51:09
  33. Iran -- A War to Play 42:58
  34. Oscars Preview 2026 38:31
  35. UBK Guys v. SCOTUS 50:08
  36. Forecasting the Government Shutdown 44:15
  37. State of the Union 2026 49:44