Castuner

The Poly Brief

David Meir-Levy

Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by repo

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Episodes

31 episodes

  1. Nov 9: Hegseth's impeachment week, and the market that doesn't count it, plus Spain's 92% favorite 8:56
  2. Nov 8: Eisenkot gets the mandate the market said he wouldn't, and New Zealand's fewer-votes favorite 9:32
  3. Nov 6: The AI selloff hits Anthropic's IPO, and the Fed hike in the same hour 9:41
  4. Nov 5: Mississippi's 1,138 votes, Alaska's math, and Iran's new clock 11:14
  5. Nov 4: The wave, a 43-vote Senate race, and Israel's first mandate 10:49
  6. Nov 3: A strike on Qeshm, three hours of silence. And Election Day 9:55
  7. Nov 2: Eisenkot hits 50, then meets Lieberman. And Texas on the eve of the midterms 10:33
  8. Nov 1: Two days to the midterms. A $134,000 bet before sunrise in Nebraska, and Kansas flips 10:14
  9. Oct 30: Apple's crown, decided by tonight's close. And Israel's count is done, but the math isn't 10:34
  10. Oct 29: The count moved against Netanyahu. The market moved against Eisenkot. And two rate calls we got right 10:44
  11. Oct 28: Israel flips overnight, Likud from 28.5% to 99%. And two central banks decide today 11:18
  12. Oct 27: Israel votes with Eisenkot at 57%, moved by one trader at dawn. And Anthropic files to go public 11:20
  13. Oct 26: One in five happened twice. Lula and Serbia's students beat the market, and Israel votes tomorrow with Eisenkot at 53% 12:00
  14. Oct 25: Election Sunday. Brazil's runoff is a coin flip in the polls and 80% on the market, and Serbia votes after two years of student protests 11:11
  15. Oct 23: Drones over the Black Sea, the NATO-Russia clash market jumps ten points, and the Senate market wakes up 11:17
  16. Oct 22: Putin says 'around November tenth', the talks market jumps 30 points, and the NBA champions are priced fifth 10:39
  17. Oct 21: Thirteen days out, the Senate market won't budge, and GTA VI's trailer is losing a race against a view counter 11:18
  18. Oct 20: Canada's rate hike goes from 15% to 73% in a day, and a three-hour scare on Iran 11:11
  19. Oct 19: Trump endorses Netanyahu and Eisenkot drops 8, and Brazil's first debate 10:40
  20. Oct 18: Eisenkot hits 54 as Israel calls it a tie, and the Fed hike fades 10:43
  21. Oct 16: Brazil's race tightens, and a Roadster beats a stopwatch nobody saw 10:26
  22. Oct 15: One tenth of a percent moves the Fed, and Apple closes in on Nvidia 9:46
  23. Oct 14: Romania's Thursday ultimatum, and Anthropic's moving IPO date 10:36
  24. Oct 13: Netanyahu slides, Bennett climbs, and the Fed's next move 9:45
  25. Oct 12: Le Pen slips, Philippe gets a TV bump, and the states that want to pause AI 9:54
  26. Oct 11: The Nobel nobody priced, Eisenkot's slide, and Iran's strange calm 11:20
  27. Oct 9: The Nobel favorite nobody can explain, and Brazil's runoff 9:04
  28. Oct 8: The Democratic sweep trade, and the blockade that won't end 10:13
  29. Oct 7: Israel's race tightens, and the Nobel nobody can call 10:29
  30. Oct 6: Romania picks a diplomat, and a mystery bet in France 8:50
  31. Oct 5: Brazil flips to Bolsonaro, and the Fed hike vanishes 8:30