Reasonably Optimistic
What prediction markets can tell us that polls can’t
28:15
On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, users can bet on elections, interest-rate cuts, corporate earnings and almost any question with an answer that will eventually be revealed. Those bets can produce a different kind of forecast than a traditional poll. But what happens when betting on everything becomes easier and more socially acceptable?
Host Megan McArdle is joined by Robin Hanson, an…