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Complexity Premia

Coolabah Capital Investments

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets.If this recording contains reference to any financial products, that reference does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation, and may not be relied upon. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC’s MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

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82 Folgen

  1. Episode 80: The Great Credit Squeeze: Higher Yields, Falling House Prices, and Recession Risk 31:57
  2. Episode 79: The Great Cost of Capital Reset: When Higher Yields Hit Everything 26:17
  3. Episode 78: When Higher for Longer Bites: Bonds, Housing, and the Next Credit Cycle 25:29
  4. Episode 77: From Central Banks to SpaceX: Investing Through the Next Industrial Revolution 25:20
  5. Episode 76: The Budget Shock: Rates, Housing, and Australia’s Capital Flight Risk 27:34
  6. Episode 75: War, Rates, and Risk: Where to Hide in a Fragile Macro Regime 29:42
  7. Episode 74: War in Middle East; Oil Price Shock; Inflation and Interest Rates 19:40
  8. Episode 73: Bonds, Bots, and Base Rates: Where Yields Go Next 26:30
  9. Episode 72: America First, Inflation Second: Trump, Power Politics, and the End of Easy Money 21:24
  10. Episode 71: From Lucky Country to Lazy Land: When the State Smothers Markets 10:03
  11. Episode 70: AI Capex: The Trillion-Dollar Inflation Time-Bomb 11:18
  12. Episode 69: The Hybrid Market Shake-Up; Global Shifts; and What’s Next for Aussie Investors? 9:51
  13. Episode 68: Making Sense of the Fixed Income Paradox; Rising Term Premia; September Market Rally; Aussie Economic Outlook 22:15
  14. Episode 67: From the RBA to the Fed: Policy, Politics, and the Hunt for Yield 19:57
  15. Tariff Trades & Shark Tales - Guest Appearance on Without Boundaries 26:04
  16. That Crazy Aussie Shop - Guest Appearance on Without Boundaries 17:40
  17. Episode 66: Middle East Tensions, Trump Tariffs & Australia's Economic Drift – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris 1:10:18
  18. Episode 65: Musk–Trump Fallout; RBA to Continue Cutting Rates; Portfolio Performance 22:35
  19. Episode 64: Hedging April Trade War Chaos; Buying $4bn After Bad News Became Priced; Biggest Opportunities Ahead 17:57
  20. Episode 63: Trump’s Tariffs & How the Trade War Will Hit Australia – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris 59:37
  21. Episode 62: Trump’s Tariff Plans; US Fiscal Risks; RBA’s Evolving Rate Outlook; January Returns 29:28
  22. Episode 61: Outlook for 2025; Performance Over Last Year; Trumpian Regime Change; Addressing the Big Questions 25:00
  23. Episode 60: Hybrid Market Dies; RBA Wants to Cut Rates; Portfolio Performance; Australia's Profound Productivity Puzzle 25:52
  24. Episode 59: What Trump Means for Portfolios; Inflation; Interest Rates; and Recent Performance 21:55
  25. Episode 58: September Performance; US Economic Strength; Long-Term Interest Rate Moves; APRA Increases Bank Leverage; Trading Regulatory Risk 21:18
  26. Episode 57: Great Public vs Private Credit Debate; Killer vs Gorilla; Is Private Credit the Next Sub-Prime Crisis; APRA Tries to Kill Hybrid Market… 21:58
  27. Episode 56: $80m Record Home Sale; Is Public Spending Driving Inflation; Reaccelerating in 2025; Dictators vs Democracy; Neo-Socialism 12:49
  28. Episode 55: Volatility Shock; Bond Market Performance; RBA Jawboning; Arrogant Aussies 26:30
  29. Episode 54: What a Trump Presidency means for Inflation, Interest rates, Asset Prices & Geo-Politics 16:26
  30. Episode 53: Episode 53: Will Fed Cut Rates In September; Sahm Rule Implies US Recession Coming; Why PIMCO Says Private Credit Unattractive; And Best Performing Asset-Classes in 2024 22:55
  31. Episode 52: Sovereign Debt Crises are Back; France on the Brink; Aussie States Out of Control; Inflation Numbers Key to Asset Prices 13:56
  32. Episode 51: Zombies Drop Like Flies; Default Cycle Erupts; French Bonds Implode; Fiscal Policy Swamps Monetary Policy; May Returns 24:29
  33. Episode 50: Stagflation; Kiwi Independence; Private Credit LIT; and the New Sub Debt ETF (BSUB) 15:09
  34. Episode 49: Central Banks Bowing to Politicians; Budget Deficits Powering Inflation; Portfolio Performance 12:50
  35. Episode 48: April Returns; RBA Struggles with Credibility Crisis; All Eyes on US CPI 17:14
  36. Episode 47: Flash Podcast; Death of Central Bank Independence; Monetary Mandarins Captive to Political Masters 17:22
  37. Episode 46: Punchy Podcast; Aussie & US Inflation Surge; Stock Jockeys on Precipice 12:29
  38. Episode 45: Punchy Flash Podcast; Global Inflation Surge; What it Means for Asset Prices 11:41
  39. Episode 44: The Reacceleration of Inflation; What this Means for Equities & Bonds; Portfolio Outlook; Credit Rating Upgrades for Banks; the Conundrum if we get Immaculate Disinflation and CCI is wrong 23:49
  40. Episode 43; Existential Investment Questions for 2024; Asset-Allocation Shifts; Stubborn Services Inflation; Interest Rate Risks; Asset-Class Performance 29:32
  41. Episode 42: Returns in 2023; Outlook for 2024; Markets Priced for Perfection; Key Latent Risks; Capital Structure Relative Value 25:55
  42. Episode 41: Government Bond Yields Hit 5%; Buying Bank Bonds Yielding 7.5%; Why Fixed-Rate Bond Duration is Attractive; Fed Makes the RBA Look Like Sleepy Hollow 30:23
  43. Episode 40: Bond Yields Increase Further; New Hybrids; Credit Suisse Reflections; and Optimal Asset-Allocation 52:06
  44. Episode 39: Commercial Property in Crisis; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Non-Banks Under Pump; Bond Market Performance; Optimal Asset-Allocation; Best Trade Ideas; Sticky Inflation and Rates 54:36
  45. Episode 38: Winners and Losers in FY23; Best Returns for FY24; Are Rate Hikes Coming to an End; Prepare for a Persistent Pain Trade; Bonds vs Equities 52:31
  46. Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more 56:03
  47. Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation 24:53
  48. Episode 35: The RBA’s sledgehammer is yet to fall; Bank bonds paying 6.75% pa; Riskier asset-classes to get hosed 31:26
  49. Episode 34: Reflections on 2022 and Outlook for 2023 21:16
  50. Episode 33: Global Recession in 2023; Housing Hammered; Equities Risks; & Bond Market Opportunities 20:52